We are far from the heyday of the AL Central. In 2025, the five clubs in this group produced 387 wins, which tied the NL West for the fewest by any division. Given that the NL West included the World Series champion Dodgers but was dragged down by the 43-win Rockies, it’s fair to say the AL Central was the weakest group overall.
If any team is going to lead this division back to glory, it’s likely the Tigers. Detroit has the best pitcher in the American League (Tarik Skubal), a solid offense and an eye-popping group of prospects who are nearing their debuts. Their toughest divisional challengers might be the Royals, who could take a major step forward this season by improving their offense. The Guardians also can’t be counted out after sneaking into the top spot last year, while the Twins and White Sox are in the midst of deep rebuilds.
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Read more: AL East division preview
Cleveland Guardians
Projected record (per FanGraphs, as of March 4): 76-86, 13.6% odds to make the playoffs, 6.4% odds to win the division
What happened last season? When the calendar flipped to September, the Guardians were putting the finishing touches on an unremarkable season. They were one game over .500, third in the AL Central and 10.5 games behind the Tigers. And while dealing with a gambling scandal that caused closer Emmanuel Clase and starter Luis Ortiz to leave the team, the front office might’ve been happy to see the season fade away while local fans shifted their attention to the Cavaliers and Browns.
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But the clubhouse had other, more exciting plans, as the Guardians went 20-7 in September, reeled in the Tigers and won the division on the final weekend of the season. Cleveland lost to Detroit in the wild-card round but still walked away proud of the resilience displayed in its strong finish. Once again, José Ramírez carried an otherwise unremarkable offense. He ranked fifth in the American League in OPS and was baseball’s only 30-40 player. Cade Smith saved the bullpen after Clase departed, and Gavin Williams keyed the rotation by posting the lowest second-half ERA (2.18) of any qualified American League pitcher.
What happened in the offseason? Even when factoring in that Cleveland is a small-market franchise, this team was especially quiet in the offseason. In fact, middle reliever Shawn Armstrong is the only recent addition who can be expected to contribute. The good news is that the team didn’t lose any key contributions to trades or free agency, either. Perhaps the most notable development of the offseason was a negative one, as it appears that Clase and Ortiz will not be back with the team anytime soon. The front office also took care of some business in late January by extending Ramírez’s contract until 2032.
Best-case scenario for 2026: Another run at the postseason could be driven by the pitching staff. Williams was once a notable prospect, so there’s reason to believe he can continue to step forward, even though the advanced stats suggest he pitched over his head in the second half of 2025. Tanner Bibee has plenty of room for improvement after a disappointing year, and Joey Cantillo showed some potential down the stretch. The strength of the team has recently been the bullpen, and even without Clase, there’s enough skill in Smith, Armstrong and Hunter Gaddis to give manager Stephen Vogt a dominant late-inning trio. If the mound men can keep the score down, Ramírez can probably continue to work his magic in carrying the offense.
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Worst-case scenario: The defending champs could be far off the AL Central pace by the summer. Ramírez, Steven Kwan and Kyle Manzardo are the only Cleveland hitters who are likely to be better than average. The rest of the lineup could have major holes. After all, despite Ramírez’s heroics, Cleveland finished 28th in runs scored last year. And the pitching staff is more likely to be average than good. Williams is a regression candidate, and the back end of the rotation — Slade Cecconi, Logan Allen and Cantillo — are all relatively unproven. It won’t matter how well the bullpen fares if the team doesn’t often have a lead to protect.
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Make-or-break player: Chase DeLauter. For the Guardians to have an average lineup, their top prospect needs to finally make an impact. The 24-year-old is a former first-round draft pick who was expected to have already contributed by now, but frequent injuries have slowed his timeline. DeLauter has played in just 138 minor-league games over three seasons; however, he entered spring training with a clean bill of health. There are few offensive difference-makers on Cleveland’s roster, and there’s little chance that Gabriel Arias, Bo Naylor or CJ Kayfus are ever going to make meaningful offensive contributions. Putting this much weight on an unproven prospect is not a good position to be in, but it’s the reality for the Guardians after such a quiet offseason.
Season prediction: Despite their miraculous finish to 2025, the Guardians have just a small chance to earn a 2026 postseason spot. Realistically, their only path is to win the AL Central, as the weak talent pool in this division makes it unlikely that the second-place club will qualify for a wild card. The more likely scenario is that either the Tigers or Royals get off to a good start, and the Guardians become sellers at the trade deadline. Kwan’s name has often popped up in trade rumors, and he would bring in a significant prospect haul. The expectation here is that the Guardians’ September batting order includes prospects DeLauter, Travis Bazzana, Angel Genao and Cooper Ingle, giving the fan base a glimpse of the future.
Read more: AL Central offseason grades
Detroit Tigers
Projected record (per FanGraphs, as of March 4): 85-77, 72.6% odds to make the playoffs, 59.3% odds to win the division
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What happened last season? The Tigers raced ahead of the AL Central competition, winning 18 games in April and 19 in May. But an epic September collapse (7-17 record) allowed the Guardians to catch up and grab the division title on the final weekend of September. Detroit got revenge on Cleveland by knocking it out in the wild-card round and took Seattle the distance in the ALDS before bowing out after 15 innings in Game 5. Tarik Skubal continued to be the cornerstone of the franchise and earned his second consecutive AL Cy Young Award while posting a ridiculous 36:4 K:BB ratio in his three October starts. Despite the lack of a superstar, the offense fared slightly better than the pitching staff, with Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Kerry Carpenter and Gleyber Torres all making meaningful contributions.
What happened in the offseason? The Tigers were quiet for most of the winter — until they made a big splash near the end. Their offseason started with right-hander Jack Flaherty making a somewhat surprising decision to exercise an option on his contract and Gleyber Torres accepting a one-year qualifying offer. The front office then added right-hander Drew Anderson, who previously pitched in the KBO. Longtime closer Kenley Jansen was added via free agency, and the expectation is that the 38-year-old will get most of the ninth-inning opportunities ahead of Will Vest and Kyle Finnegan, who was retained on a two-year pact. In February, Skubal won his arbitration hearing and a $32 million salary, and on the same day, right-hander Framber Valdez joined the team on a three-year, $115 million contract. The addition of Valdez gives the pitching staff something it lacked: a true No. 2 starter behind Skubal. Finally, on the eve of spring training, the Tigers created the feel-good story of the offseason when they signed former Detroit superstar Justin Verlander to a one-year deal.
Best-case scenario for 2026: Despite their September collapse, the Tigers remain the class of this division. Skubal and Valdez give the rotation a strong 1-2 punch so long as they stay healthy, and Jansen, Vest and Finnegan form a reliable late-inning trio. The offense ranked 11th in runs scored last year and could be better if key players such as Greene and Torkelson avoid a repeat of their second-half swoons. But the real upside in Detroit comes from the elite prospect group. Shortstop Kevin McGonigle could spend most of the season in the majors, while Max Clark and Josue Briceño have the skills to accelerate their timelines and arrive during the summer. These are the players who will eventually take Detroit’s offense from good to great, and while that is more likely to happen in 2027 or ‘28, prospects of this ilk sometimes force the issue. For 2026, McGonigle is a Rookie of the Year candidate, and the Tigers are the front-runners to win the AL Central.
Worst-case scenario: If the youngsters fail to make progress, the Tigers could find themselves in a battle for a postseason berth. Sure, Skubal is amazing and Valdez is effective, but things could fall apart behind them. Flaherty struggled last season (4.64 ERA), Casey Mize logged a 4.92 ERA in the second half, Verlander is 43, and Anderson has no track record in North America. The relief corps could also disappoint, given Jansen’s age and Finnegan’s propensity for allowing baserunners (career 1.28 WHIP). Offensively, there are no veterans who seem poised to take steps forward, as Greene and Carpenter lack the plate discipline to take their games from good to great.
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Make-or-break player: Kevin McGonigle. As with the Guardians, it creates a lot of pressure to name a rookie as the club’s key player, but that’s where things stand in Motown. This lineup desperately needs a star, and McGonigle has the skills to make that happen right away. Currently ranked as baseball’s No. 2 prospect by MLB Pipeline, he has a chance to be the Tigers’ Opening Day shortstop. He’s an on-base machine (career .410 OBP) who has developing power and enough speed to occupy the leadoff spot.
Season prediction: Fortunately for the Tigers, the AL Central is baseball’s weakest division. Kansas City might give Detroit a serious run for the division, but the Guardians seem likely to take a step backward after their improbable late-season surge last year. The Twins and White Sox are far away from contention and could be the two worst teams in the American League. But the AL wild-card race will be a gauntlet, as the East is deep and the West has its share of contenders. The odds are good that Detroit manages to earn a division crown, but there is no fallback option here.
Can Tarik Skubal lead the Tigers to a division title in what might be his final season in Detroit? (Taylor Wilhelm/Yahoo Sports)
Kansas City Royals
Projected record (per FanGraphs, as of March 4): 81-81, 37.8% odds to make the playoffs, 21.4% odds to win the division
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What happened last season? With the combination of a top-10 pitching staff and a bottom-10 offense, the Royals were the definition of mediocre. They spent most of the season hovering around .500 before finishing 82-80 with a plus-14 run differential. Kansas City opened September 9.5 games behind the division-leading Tigers, and when Detroit faltered down the stretch, it was the Guardians who enjoyed a furious run and vaulted from third place to finish first. That said, despite an injury-plagued campaign from Cole Ragans, the rotation was steadied by the likes of Kris Bubic, Michael Wacha and Noah Cameron. Carlos Estevez, Lucas Erceg and John Schreiber anchored a solid bullpen. Offensively, Maikel Garcia took a big step forward. And while Bobby Witt Jr. did not have his best season, he was still one of baseball’s best all-around players.
What happened in the offseason? For a team that hopes to take the next step, the Royals were surprisingly quiet over the winter. Matt Strahm arrived via trade to deepen the relief corps. Lane Thomas signed a one-year deal and Isaac Collins was acquired via trade; both should help improve an outfield group that was among the least productive in baseball last year. Zooming out, the front office made one of its most important offseason moves way back in July, when the Royals prevented starter Seth Lugo from leaving in free agency by inking him to a two-year contract extension.
Best-case scenario for 2026: Despite their lack of offseason aggressiveness, the Royals could break through this season. Getting 30 starts from Ragans would make the rotation one of the best in the American League, as Bubic has high-end potential and Wacha, Lugo and Cameron can eat innings. The offense has a few ways to improve. Witt should return to being one of baseball’s best hitters, and young slugger Jac Caglianone is much better than he showed in his rookie season. Catching prospect Carter Jensen showed exciting potential late last season, and while Thomas and Collins are not star players, they should be an improvement over the 2025 outfield group. There’s also hope that moving in the outfield walls at Kauffman Stadium will help the Royals’ offense.
Worst-case scenario: Of course, the smaller home park dimensions could hurt the pitching staff. And there was already regression potential, as Lugo, Wacha and Cameron outperformed most of their ERA estimators last year. But the bigger concern is that a lineup that ranked 26th in runs scored last year won’t gain significant traction. Even with Collins and Thomas, Kansas City’s outfield options are among the worst in baseball. Perez remains a lineup centerpiece, but there are obvious concerns about a catcher who will turn 36 this season. While it’s hard to envision this roster taking a major step back, the Royals’ quiet offseason could prevent them from taking notable steps forward.
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Make-or-break player: Cole Ragans. If healthy, Ragans could contend for the Cy Young Award and change the shape of Kansas City’s pitching staff. After all, the lefty struck out 223 batters in 2024 before logging an eye-popping 14.3 K/9 and a 2.42 FIP in 13 starts last year. But he has much to prove this year in terms of durability, given that he’s 28 years old and has logged just one season with more than 100 innings pitched. With Ragans on the sideline, the rotation is respectable, but with him at his best, it can be elite.
Season prediction: The Royals have a real chance to push past the Guardians and Tigers to the top of the AL Central. The guess here is that Kansas City puts Cleveland in the rear-view mirror in the summer and battles Detroit until the final days of the season. If Ragans and Witt are part of the Cy Young and MVP conversations, the Royals will play in October for just the second time in the past decade.
Minnesota Twins
Projected record (per FanGraphs, as of March 4): 79-83, 24.3% odds to make the playoffs, 12.5% odds to win the division
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What happened last season? In short, the Twins gave up. The club remained in contention until the All-Star break but started the second half on a sour note. The front office decided that the current iteration of the roster wasn’t good enough to get over the hump and traded most of their key players in late July, including closer Jhoan Duran and shortstop Carlos Correa. All told, the team opened June with a 31-26 record and then went 39-66 over the final four months of the season. Now a full-scale rebuild is underway in the Twin Cities, and the blood-letting might not be over. Still, there were some positives. Byron Buxton finally stayed (mostly) healthy and set career highs in homers (35), RBI (83) and runs scored (97). Joe Ryan posted strong ratios (3.42 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) and threw a career-high 171.0 innings.
What happened in the offseason? As one would expect from a rebuilding club, the Twins were quiet over the winter. They added Josh Bell on an inexpensive, one-year deal, making the 33-year-old their starting first baseman. If Bell has a productive season, he’ll be a useful trade chip at the deadline. Minnesota also inked Victor Caratini to a reasonable two-year pact. He’ll serve as the No. 2 catcher and draw some starts at DH. The list of notable transactions ends there, though a January trade for Eric Wagaman should be mentioned. Wagaman is unlikely to make an impact but did appear in 140 games for the Marlins last year. The Twins’ offseason ended with a thud, when news broke that Pablo Lopez would require season-ending Tommy John surgery and miss all of 2026.
Best-case scenario for 2026: This year, success in Minnesota will be measured in player development more than wins and losses. The flurry of deals last summer has resulted in a deep, exciting pool of prospects, and many of them will debut in 2026. Outfielder Walter Jenkins is the headliner. The fifth overall pick of the 2023 draft finished last season in Triple-A and will compete for an Opening Day roster spot. Even if he falls short of that goal, he should debut in the first half. Luke Keaschall and Brooke Lee are youngsters who are already major-league regulars and still have plenty of room for improvement. Keaschall is especially exciting after he hit .302 with 14 steals in 49 games last year. In the rotation, it would be great to see Zebby Matthews and David Festa finally meet long-awaited expectations to become major-league regulars. In terms of veterans, by getting off to hot starts, Buxton and Ryan would give the front office a choice between keeping productive players or executing trades while their value is high.
Worst-case scenario: Things could get ugly in Minnesota this season. After all, the Twins had the worst record in the American League (23-43) after the 2025 All-Star break. Many of the team’s key players, including Buxton and Royce Lewis, have long injury histories or dealt with significant ailments last season (or both). Without sizable contributions from them, the Twins will likely be surpassed by the White Sox. Prospect development is rarely linear, which means that the likes of Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez might not make an impact this season. And after being teased by Matthews and Festa for multiple seasons, only a fool would bank on their improvement in 2026.
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Make-or-break player: Royce Lewis. Beyond helping the Twins, this is a make-or-break season for Lewis. After being selected first in the 2017 MLB Draft, his career has been marred by injuries. But during his time in the minors and his first two major-league campaigns, the third baseman was effective when on the field. At this point, it’s fair to wonder if annual ailments have permanently impacted the 26-year-old; over the past two years, he has posted an unremarkable .705 OPS in 188 games. As he enters his prime years, Lewis not only needs to shed the injury-prone label but also needs to reestablish that he is an impact player when healthy.
Season prediction: The Twins will quickly fall off the pace in the AL Central, but they’ll stay out of the American League cellar until the trade deadline. All bets are off once we get to August, as there’s a good chance that at least a few of Ryan, Buxton, Lewis, Bell, Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner will be on other teams by then. In a perfect world, Minnesota’s front office makes shrewd moves when unloading these veterans and enters 2027 with one of the most exciting prospect groups in baseball.
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Chicago White Sox
Projected record (per FanGraphs, as of March 4): 69-93, 1.2% odds to make the playoffs, 0.5% odds to win the division
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What happened last season? The lengthy rebuild continued on the South Side, as the White Sox won just 60 games, 10 fewer than the next-worst American League team. Still, they were much better than in their historically bad, 41-win 2024 season. The improvements came from a total team effort, as no Chicago player achieved a 3.0 WAR, but 11 reached a mark of 1.3 or better. Infielder Colson Montgomery needed just 71 games to lead the team with a 2.7 WAR, as he went deep 21 times. Catcher Kyle Teel was the other notable newcomer, as he produced a lofty .375 OBP over 78 games. And while Shane Smith endured a rough stretch in the middle of the season, he finished as the club leader in pitching WAR (2.2) while logging a respectable 3.81 ERA over 29 starts and being named an All-Star.
What happened in the offseason? Although the White Sox are heading in the right direction, they aren’t ready to be major players in the free-agent market. That said, they made many roster improvements this winter, primarily with the signing of Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami. The 26-year-old is a strikeout-prone power hitter who might not have reached his peak yet already has a 56-homer season and several 30-homer campaigns on his résumé. The organization also looked overseas to help the rotation, signing lefty Anthony Kay, who pitched in Japan for two years. Sean Newcomb was added to compete for a rotation spot, and he could help the bullpen if those plans don’t work out. Erick Fedde was a last-minute addition before spring training. He struggled last year but posted a 3.11 ERA in 21 starts with the White Sox in 2024. In the bullpen, Seranthony Dominguez was added on the expectation that he can take over the closer’s role. Austin Hays was the other notable signing, as he owns a respectable lifetime .748 OPS and should play often in right field. Finally, there was a significant trade, in which Chicago sent disappointing outfielder Luis Robert Jr. to the Mets for a package that included Luisangel Acuña, who could become a lineup regular right away.
Best-case scenario for 2026: To be clear, there is no chance that the 2026 White Sox play in October. Success this season will be measured by the improvements of young players, not wins and losses. To that end, Montgomery and Teel need to repeat their rookie-year achievements across a full campaign. Murakami must make a smooth transition to America, and Chase Meidroth and Miguel Vargas must continue their ascension toward being useful major-league regulars. On the pitching side, it would be nice to see Smith or Sean Burke take the next step. And by the summer, notable prospects Noah Schultz and Hagan Smith should be ready to debut. Overall, White Sox fans can hope to have an exciting young team to cheer for down the stretch.
Worst-case scenario: The pain might not be over for Sox fans. There isn’t a pitcher on the roster who has great odds of making notable strides this year. Schultz and Hagan Smith might not be ready to contribute, as Schultz was inconsistent last season, and Smith has yet to reach Triple-A. On the offensive side, Montgomery has potential for a sophomore slump after striking out in 29.2% of his rookie-year plate appearances. The same worries come with Murakami, who received tepid interest from major-league teams thanks to his jarring swing-and-miss tendencies. There’s also a dearth of relievers with exciting skill sets, which is bad news for a team with few starters who can consistently throw six innings. No one should be surprised if Chicago loses 100 games for a fourth straight season.
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Make-or-break player: Colson Montgomery. The 23-year-old might have the most upside of anyone on the Sox’s roster. After all, he hit 21 home runs in 71 games in his rookie season. He also struck out 29.2% of the time, and any regression in that area would put him into dangerous territory in terms of holding down a full-time role. Montgomery could finish 2026 among the major-league home run leaders, or he could hit .210 and see his playing time reduced. The hope is that he will be closer to the former than the latter.
Season prediction: Unfortunately, the White Sox seem likely to finish last in the American League for one more season. The rebuilding Twins might be there to break Chicago’s fall, but there is still more talent in Minnesota than there is on the South Side. However, there could be bright spots for the Sox this year in the forms of Murakami, Hays, Acuña, Shane Smith, Teel and Montgomery. For now, fans will have to focus on individual performances rather than team success.
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