March Madness: Ranking every NCAA tournament team, from 1 to 68

Shrewd evaluations on who to target in the transfer portal enabled May turn Michigan into a juggernaut this season. The Wolverines boast a top-10 offense and the nation’s most feared defense. They overwhelm opponents with size and skill. They’ve won 10 games this season by 30 or more points, seven by 40 or more. This year’s Big Ten was loaded, yet they captured the outright league title by four games.

Michigan has not looked quite so dominant since a late February knee injury to guard LJ Cason removed one of the team’s best perimeter shot creators. The Wolverines survived a few close wins playing below their standard before absorbing a rare loss against Purdue in Sunday’s Big Ten title game.

The guess here is that loss refocuses Michigan.

A motivated Michigan is a dangerous Michigan, and the Wolverines also benefit from the most favorable path to the Final Four of any of the No. 1 seeds. That combination makes Michigan my title favorite.

2. Duke (32-2) | East 1 vs. Siena

He may not have the same tantalizing upside as the other leading contenders to be selected No. 1 overall in this year’s NBA Draft, but Duke’s Cameron Boozer has bragging rights in at least one regard.

No one in this year’s star-laden draft class wins as consistently as he does.

Boozer led Columbus High School to four state championships at Florida’s highest level of prep basketball and guided the Explorers to a national title as a senior last year. He also won three consecutive Nike EYBL crowns with his club team, the Nightrydas, and captured a pair of gold medals playing for USA Basketball.

Now Boozer is making winning at the college level look just as easy. The soon-to-be-crowned national player of the year is the offensive hub for ACC regular season and tournament champ Duke, scoring in a multitude of ways, setting up teammates for easy baskets and generating second-chance opportunities via the offensive glass.

Duke is a deserving No. 1 overall seed in this year’s NCAA tournament, but the Blue Devils will not be at full strength as they tackle an East region loaded with dangerous teams guided by Hall-of-Fame coaches. Sophomore center Patrick Ngongba is recovering from a right foot injury that has sidelined him the past two weeks, while combo guard Caleb Foster underwent surgery to repair a fractured right foot and is unlikely to return until at least a potential Final Four.

Can Duke survive those key injuries and a treacherous draw? Don’t bet against Boozer putting the Blue Devils on his back.

“I’ll just kind of do whatever I can to help my team win,” the son of former Duke star Carlos Boozer recently told Heavy Magazine.

It shows.

3. Arizona (32-2) | West 1 vs. LIU

To say that Arizona is overdue for a Final Four run is a massive understatement.

The Wildcats haven’t advanced beyond the Elite Eight since the days of Gilbert Arenas, Richard Jefferson and Jason Gardner a quarter century ago.

Twelve times since 2001, Arizona has advanced to the NCAA tournament’s second weekend. Five times, the Wildcats made the Elite Eight. Each trip ended in heartbreak, from a near miss against Kansas in 2003, to Illinois’ stunning 15-point comeback in 2005, to Jamelle Horne’s game-winning 3-pointer rimming out against UConn in 2011, to back-to-back narrow losses to Frank Kaminsky and Wisconsin in 2014 and 2015.

Arizona has been so consistently outstanding this season that it would be a disappointment if the Wildcats don’t make it to Indianapolis. Tommy Lloyd’s team took down the likes of Florida, UConn, Alabama and UCLA in non-league play, then swept the regular season and tournament titles in a Big 12 that produced a half dozen top-six NCAA tournament seeds.

[Enter Yahoo Fantasy Bracket Mayhem now for your shot at $50K]

On Saturday, Arizona became the first team ever to defeat 12 ranked opponents before the NCAA tournament. They boast a top-five offense and a top-five defense. They’re so deep and talented that they can bring game changers like Anthony Dell’Orso and Tobe Awaka off the bench.

The draw in the West region isn’t easy.

Either Wisconsin or Arkansas will pose a stiff challenge in the Sweet 16. Potential Elite Eight foe Purdue finally appears to be playing to its preseason No. 1 potential after struggling down the stretch in the regular season.

Is this the year Arizona finally breaks through its second-weekend barrier? The Wildcats once more have their fans dreaming big.

Tier 2: Serious contenders

4. Florida (26-7) | South 1 vs. Prairie View A&M/Lehigh

Don’t be too quick to write off Florida after its one-sided loss to Vanderbilt in the SEC semifinals. Getting humbled days before the start of the NCAA tournament might be the best thing that could have happened to the reigning national champions

“I think it’s not the worst thing in the world to have a little wake-up call this time of year,” forward Alex Condon told reporters Saturday. “I know everyone’s going to be super motivated this week in practice.”

Florida is a threat to go back-to-back for the second time in program history thanks to the return of every key frontcourt player from last year’s national championship team. That deep, physical frontcourt has bludgeoned opponents on the glass and surrendered nothing easy at the rim, helping the Gators reassert themselves as the SEC’s strongest team and win the league by three games.

When Florida is at its best, it’s converting offensive rebounds into second-chance opportunities at one end and limiting opponents to one shot at the other. The Gators grab a staggering 43.1% of their missed shots, second nationally only to Tennessee.

Florida’s early-round matchups appear fairly straightforward, but the Gators will not make it to Indianapolis without being tested. A potential SEC tournament rematch with Vanderbilt awaits in the regional semifinals. Among the potential Elite Eight opponents Florida could face is an Illinois team that can spread out bigger teams or a Houston team that will be motivated to avenge last year’s heartbreaking national title game loss.

Limiting turnovers and knocking down open 3s will be key to surviving those tougher matchups. Florida’s frontcourt is elite, but the Gators will only go far if guards Boogie Fland, Xaivian Lee and Urban Klavzar do their part.

5. Houston (28-6) | South 2 vs. Idaho

Give Rice University an assist if Houston goes on to make this year’s Final Four.

Last September, Rice agreed to replace Houston as the host school for the South regional at the Toyota Center, paving the way for the Cougars to play the regional semifinals and final 2.5 miles from their campus if they can survive their opening two games.

Houston initially agreed to host the South regional in 2020 before it turned into a regular Sweet 16 participant under Kelvin Sampson. By NCAA rules, Houston would have been ineligible to be placed in the South region had it remained the host school.

Playing close to home could be a big advantage for Houston if it has to face off against the likes of Illinois and Florida to get to Indianapolis. This year’s Cougars aren’t quite the defensive juggernaut that Sampson’s previous teams have been, but their mix of proven veterans and heralded freshmen makes them one of the half dozen biggest threats in this NCAA tournament field to win six games.

6. Iowa State (27-8) | Midwest 2 vs. Tennessee State

This is the best setup that Iowa State could have asked for as it tries to make its deepest NCAA tournament run since its most recent Elite Eight appearance in 2000. The Cyclones should have winnable early-round matchups and plenty of fan support as they try to navigate through the Midwest region.

What makes Iowa State the toughest potential challenge for Michigan in this region is that the Cyclones are a defensive buzzsaw. It starts with the ball pressure and point-of-attack defense of point guard Tamin Lipsey and the size, length and mobility of his teammates. Iowa State forces turnovers at the fourth-highest rate in the country this season thanks to its active hands and quick rotations.

Should Iowa State encounter Michigan in a regional final, the Cyclones would draw confidence from how they competed against the most similarly built team in the Big 12, pushing Arizona to the brink in the Big 12 semifinals. Michigan is also 179th nationally in turnover rate, which could play into Iowa State’s hands.

7. UConn (29-5) | East 2 vs. Furman

Tier 3: Fringe contenders

8. Michigan State (25-8) | East 3 vs. North Dakota State

9. Purdue (27-8) | West 2 vs. Queens

Purdue point guard Braden Smith will almost certainly become college basketball’s all-time assist leader early in his team’s first-round matchup against Queens. Smith enters the NCAA tournament just two assists shy of surpassing former Duke point guard Bobby Hurley.