2026 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: 5 starting pitchers worth digging deeper on in drafts

If there’s one position to find an edge in fantasy baseball, it’s starting pitchers. Sometimes, we can dig deep into a starting pitcher’s profile and find interesting data points to create a list of players to examine. Most of the starting pitchers on this list go past pick 150 in Yahoo leagues, meaning they go in the double-digit rounds of 12-team leagues — sleepers who tend to go later in drafts and somewhat fly under the radar for fantasy managers.

[Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Baseball league for the 2026 MLB season]

Since the draft market has become sharper, these sleeper starting pitchers will come with concerns. However, we’re looking to hit on these sleepers because they present a low-risk, medium-to-high reward at their draft cost.

Advertisement

Ryan Pepiot, SP, TB

Interestingly, Pepiot had one of his best seasons in 2025, pitching away from Tropicana Field. However, the draft market hasn’t valued him as highly as the prospects and those with smaller samples. In 2023 and 2024, Tropicana Field ranked third in strikeout park factors and 25th in offensive park factor. When the Rays played in George Steinbrenner Field in 2025, they ranked eighth in offensive park factor and 14th in strikeout park factor.

Pepiot’s swinging-strike rate was at 13.5% in 2024, which dropped in 2025 (12.1%) with the ballpark change. His changeup leads his arsenal with a 15.4% swinging-strike rate in 2025, similar to his career average (14.5%). That aligns with the league-wide changeup swinging-strike average at 15.5%. Pepiot’s changeup generates an above-average vertical movement profile, leading to whiffs and weaker contact, specifically against left-handed hitters (.232 wOBA, .253 xwOBA) in 2025.

Besides Pepiot’s changeup, the four-seamer profiles as an above-average pitch based on movement profiles. Pepiot’s four-seam possesses over 19 inches of IVB (induced vertical break), compared to the league average of around 16 inches. That pairs well when a pitcher can generate tons of extension, which Pepiot tends to do, given his 77th percentile extension at 6.8 feet.

Pepiot lowered his four-seam usage to right-handed hitters in 2025 (42.6%), down from 2024 (57%). Unsurprisingly, the batted ball results declined in 2025 (.396 wOBA, .355 xwOBA) compared to 2024 (.290 wOBA, .283 xwOBA) against right-handed hitters. That coincides with the park factor changes in 2025, which could be noisy. Theoretically, Pepiot’s four-seam should fare well in Tropicana Field, since it’s a pitcher-friendly environment.

Pepiot throws an interesting slider that doesn’t drop much, but sweeps 6-7 inches toward his glove side over the past two seasons. That’s notable because Pepiot’s slider elicited a career-high in swinging-strike rate in 2024 (16.2%), down to 11.4% in 2025. For context, Pepiot’s slider possesses an above-average horizontal movement profile, which typically leads to more weak contact. We mention Pepiot’s slider because it’s the wild card that could help him against right-handed hitters.

Advertisement

Don’t sleep on Pepiot in the middle rounds because he possesses the stuff and home park upgrade that make him a palatable sleeper in 2026.

Joey Cantillo, SP, CLE

There might be some regression for Joey Cantillo after posting a 3.21 ERA and 3.83 xERA in 2025. However, we would gladly take his career xERA (3.76) at the draft cost. Cantillo’s changeup was deadly, evidenced by his 23.8% swinging-strike rate, which led his arsenal. Besides the whiffs, Cantillo’s changeup elicited weak contact, with a .216 wOBA (.217 xwOBA) against right-handed hitters in 2025.

Although Cantillo’s changeup doesn’t possess an above-average movement profile, he tends to locate it well, low and away from right-handed hitters. Like some Guardians’ starting pitchers of the past, Cantillo lowered his four-seam usage against righties in 2025 (40.4%) compared to 2024 (47.4%). That coincided with Cantillo throwing slightly more changeups (34.4%) and curveballs (21.3%) to right-handed hitters.

Speaking of Cantillo’s curveball, he buries it low in the zone to right-handed hitters, leading to weaker contact. That’s been evident in Cantillo’s curveball, which allowed a .215 wOBA (.211 xwOBA) to right-handed hitters. Cantillo has a high-spin curveball (over 2,600 RPM) that generates the most downward movement at 8.7 inches beyond the average pitch. For context, Cantillo’s curveball has been comparable to Matthew Liberatore and Clayton Kershaw from the left side.

Advertisement

Since Cantillo’s arsenal doesn’t pop off the page from a stuff standpoint, he can be overlooked in drafts. As such, Cantillo should be valued as a late-round sleeper starting pitcher to stream and potentially have at the backend of fantasy rosters.

Reid Detmers, P, LAA

One of these days, Reid Detmers will prove the believers correct. Jokes aside, Detmers fits the Kris Bubic mold of having success as a reliever, then rejoining the starting rotation with optimal results. Unfortunately, Detmers landed on the injured list in early September 2025 with elbow inflammation, which may have coincided with a 2 mph increase in four-seam velocity. He has pitched in a Spring Training game, so we’ll want to monitor his health throughout the offseason.

What’s to like about Detmers? It starts with the stuff. Detmers’ slider leads the arsenal with an above-average swinging-strike rate at 20.5% in 2025, up from a career average of 18%. With the additional four-seam velocity, we saw his swinging-strike rate increase to 14.7% in 2025 from 10.1% throughout his career.

Advertisement

Detmers’ four-seam generated over 18 inches of IVB in 2025, helping to create a rising effect on the heater as he peppered it high in the zone. Those tend to be optimal locations for a four-seamer with tons of IVB. Besides the four-seamer, Detmers’ slider movement profile supports the above-average swinging-strike rates because it’s a nasty gyro-like slide with tons of downward movement. The slider drops nearly 38 inches (37.8), five more inches of downward movement compared to the average.

Like other starting pitchers, Detmers relied more on his best pitch, the slider, especially to left-handed hitters. The slider usage went to 50.5% in 2025, up from 32.8% (2024) and 36.5% (2023) against left-handed hitters. That coincided with Detmers throwing fewer four-seamers (31.2%) and sinkers (6.9%), a 7- to 8-point drop for both against lefties in 2025.

There have been talks about Detmers rejoining the starting rotation, but the elbow issue might be the biggest concern. Thankfully, Detmers’ draft price hasn’t been increased to a level that adds risk, so it’s a low-risk, medium-reward bet for a starting pitcher sleeper.

Advertisement

Mike Burrows, SP, HOU

In the second half of the season, Mike Burrows ranked ninth in swinging-strike rate (14.6%) and 41st in K-BB% (19%) among starting pitchers with 20 innings pitched. Burrows is a pitcher with a strong changeup, headlining his arsenal with a 25.5% swinging-strike rate. Interestingly, Burrows’ changeup lost nearly three inches of arm-side fade, partly because he threw it harder (+1.7 mph) in 2025. The changeup doesn’t generate an above-average movement profile, making us think he locates the pitch well.

Burrows added six inches of extension in 2025, with the same arm angle. However, it’s worth noting that Burrows’ vertical release point dropped by almost 3 inches (2.9) with a horizontal release point that shifted over one foot (13.2 inches) farther from his midline. That’s a significant release change, and we saw him locate the changeup low and away from left-handed hitters.

Burrows threw slightly more changeups (34.5%) in 2025, up from 29.4% in 2024, to left-handed hitters. The changeup remained his best pitch against lefties, allowing a .202 wOBA (.227 xwOBA). Although it’s a small sample in 2024, Burrows dropped the four-seam usage to 40.4% in 2025. That’s helpful because the four-seam has somewhat of a mediocre or slightly above-average movement profile, suggesting he needs to rely upon his command.

Advertisement

We had a larger sample of pitches thrown by Burrows in 2025, with the release point change impacting the pitch movement. Like with the changeup, Burrows lowered the vertical release with the horizontal release point moving over one foot farther away from his midline. There’s a chance it was an intentional mechanic change to locate his pitches more consistently. Specifically with Burrows’s four-seam, he threw it more in the upper third of the zone, locating it over two inches higher in 2025.

All those intricate data points align with Burrows’s four-seam Location+ going from 81 (2024) to 99 (2025). Meanwhile, Burrows’s changeup Location+ made a significant jump from 94 (2024) to 109 (2025). This is a right-handed version of Andrew Abbott or a younger Merrill Kelly.

Advertisement

Burrows might not have the stuff for high-strikeout upside, but the release-point changes and improved location make him a deep sleeper at starting pitcher with better team context in 2026.

Shane Smith, SP, CWS

Shane Smith had two pitches with a swinging-strike rate at 15% or higher. Smith’s changeup generated a 15% swinging-strike rate, close to the league average. Meanwhile, Smith’s curveball had a surprisingly high 17% swinging-strike rate, several percentage points higher than the league norm (13.4%). Although the changeup isn’t dominant, it generates above-average downward movement, coming from a lower arm angle (34 degrees).

Smith throws a harder changeup (90 mph) that he locates low and away from left-handed hitters, allowing a .265 wOBA (.325 xwOBA). Theoretically, we want Smith’s changeup to perform better against lefties, especially if the four-seamer is the only other offering that allows a wOBA under .300 (.275 wOBA, .284 xwOBA). Maybe it’s a White Sox thing, but Smith’s weird changeup is similar to Davis Martin’s based on velocity (90.2 mph) and the movement profile.

The main difference between Martin and Smith’s changeup involves spin rate, with Martin’s averaging over 2,000 RPM and Smith’s at 1,500 to 1,600 RPM. Smith’s changeup compares closely to Jacob deGrom, Dustin May and Brad Keller, given their velocity, movement profiles and spin rates. There might be more whiffs coming against Smith’s changeup, assuming he continues to locate them well to left-handed hitters. For context, deGrom’s changeup elicited a 19.1% swinging-strike rate, which could be the upside scenario for Smith.

Apologies for going down the Smith’s changeup rabbit hole, but we uncovered some interesting nuggets. Although Smith’s curveball led the arsenal in swinging strikes, it’s weird because it elicits whiffs against lefties, yet they crush it. That’s evidenced by Smith’s curveball, which generates a 20.5% swinging-strike rate yet gives up a .418 wOBA (.410 xwOBA) against left-handed hitters, making it a boom-or-bust offering.

Advertisement

One reason to explain Smith’s curveball success and damage is that it’s his only pitch with negative IVB, meaning there’s significant pitch separation (over three inches) from the changeup, which he peppers low in the zone. The curveball’s movement profile is decent, but it looks like a volatile offering since we don’t typically find curveballs as a primary and effective pitch.

We’re digging deep into the player pool with Smith. That said, Smith has a mixture of above-average strikeout skills and some concerning pieces to the profile. Value Smith as a deep-league streaming pitcher to stash in case the changeup whiffs increase.